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News archives for the week ending 21st November 2008

An end to US dominance?

The United State’s leading intelligence organisation has warned that the world is entering an increasingly unstable and unpredictable period. The global trends review, produced by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) every four years, represents sobering reading in Barack Obama's intray as he prepares to take office in January.

The country he inherits, the report warns, will no longer be able to "call the shots" alone, as its power over an increasingly multipolar world begins to wane. Looking ahead to 2025, the NIC (which coordinates analysis from all the US intelligence agencies), foresees a fragmented world, where conflict over scarce resources is on the rise, poorly contained by "ramshackle" international institutions, while nuclear proliferation, particularly in the Middle East, and even nuclear conflict grow more likely.

"Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed" warns that the spread of western democratic capitalism cannot be taken for granted, as it was by George Bush and America's neoconservatives. It adds: "Today wealth is moving not just from West to East but is concentrating more under state control," giving the examples of China and Russia. "In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, the state's role in the economy may be gaining more appeal throughout the world."

At the same time, the US will become "less dominant" in the world – no longer the unrivalled superpower it has been since the end of the Cold War, but a "first among equals" in a more fluid and evenly balanced world, making the unilateralism of the Bush era no longer tenable.

The report predicts that over the next two decades "the multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships." It is a conclusion that meshes with president elect Obama's stated preference for multilateralism, but the NIC findings suggest that as the years go by it could be harder for Washington to put together "coalitions of the willing" to pursue its agenda.

While emerging economies like China, India and Brazil are likely to grow in influence at America's expense, the same cannot be said of the European Union. The NIC appears relatively certain the EU will be "losing clout" by 2025. Internal bickering and a "democracy gap" separating Brussels from European voters will leave the EU "a hobbled giant", unable to translate its economic clout into global influence.

Guardian, 21/11/08

Iraqis fight over US pact

Iraq's parliament persevered Thursday in its debate on a proposed security agreement with the United States despite raucous attempts by opposition lawmakers to disrupt proceedings ahead of next week's vote on the deal.

The measure, which would keep U.S. forces in Iraq for another three years, has a good chance of passing in the Shiite-led parliament. But the uproar created by loyalists of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr suggests the pact could remain divisive as the country struggles for reconciliation after years of war.

If al-Sadr's group and other legislators opposed to the pact lose by a thin margin in the vote planned for Monday, they might attempt to turn their anti-American message into a defining issue in provincial elections on Jan. 31 and general elections late in 2009. His followers planned a major rally Friday in central Baghdad to protest the security deal, which they view as a surrender to U.S. interests.

Associated Press, 20/11/08

Pakistan PM says US attacks 'intolerable'

Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani today condemned the US missile attacks targeting militants on its soil by unmanned drones, saying such acts are "intolerable". Meanwhile, US Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson was today summoned by the Foreign Ministry here and told such attacks violate Pakistan's sovereignty and should be stopped immediately.

"We condemn such actions. These attacks are intolerable. They are counterproductive. They are increasing our difficulties," Gilani told the National Assembly after members raised the issue of Bannu attack. A US drone fired missiles on a house in Bannu district in Pakistan's northwest yesterday killing at least six people, including one an al-Qaeda leader.

Pakistan has repeatedly raised objections over US missile strikes in the country's tribal regions but Washington has now expanded strikes to the administrative areas and launched first attack in Bannu.

Press Trust of India, 20/11/08

US, Turkey and Iraq ally against Kurds

The United States, Turkey and Iraq have agreed to form a joint committee to combat Kurdish separatist rebels using bases in northern Iraq to attack Turkey. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki hosted talks on the issue with Turkish Interior Minister Besir Atalay and U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker in Baghdad Wednesday.

The United States and Iraq consider the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, a terrorist group. However, they are concerned Turkey's attacks on the separatist rebels could destabilize northern Iraq. The rebels have been fighting for autonomy in southeastern Turkey since 1984. Tens of thousands of people have died in the conflict.

Voice of America, 20/11/08

Mercenaries may increase as US withdraws

The new agreement covering the U.S. military presence in Iraq, which appears to end immunity from local law for private security contractors, could affect companies the U.S. is likely to rely on as it reduces its forces there.

The broad deal, which had been negotiated for months, removes immunity for armed security guards protecting U.S. officials and facilities, as well as contractors involved in the U.S. military's massive supply chain.With contractors falling under the jurisdiction of Iraqi courts, it could become harder for them to recruit new workers and could drive up costs as insurance rates and wages rise to offset the risk of landing in a local jail.

The U.S. military employs almost 90,000 non-Iraqi contractors who do everything from guarding supply convoys to serving meals to soldiers. Those workers, employed by companies such as KBR Inc. of Houston and Triple Canopy Inc. of Herndon, Va., have played an increasingly important support role to U.S. military operations, and their numbers could increase as the U.S. draws down its regular forces.

Wall Street Journal, 19/11/08

US and UK ‘acted as vigilantes’ in Iraq

One of Britain’s most authoritative judicial figures last night delivered a blistering attack on the invasion of Iraq, describing it as a serious violation of international law, and accusing Britain and the US of acting like a ‘world vigilante’.

Lord Bingham, in his first major speech since retiring as the senior law lord, rejected the then attorney general’s defence of the 2003 invasion as fundamentally flawed. Contradicting head on Lord Goldsmith’s advice that the invasion was lawful, Bingham stated: “It was not plain that Iraq had failed to comply in a manner justifying resort to force and there were no strong factual grounds or hard evidence to show that it had”.

Adding his weigh to the body of international legal opinion opposed to the invasion, Bignham said that to argue, as the British government had done, that Britain and the US could unilaterally decide that Iraq had broken UN resolutions ‘passes belief’.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats continue to press for an independent inquiry into the circumstances around the invasion. The government says an inquiry would be harmful while British troops are in Iraq. Ministers say most of the remaining 4,000 will leave by mid-2009.

Guardian, 18/11/08

Obama will continue 'star wars'

President-elect Barack Obama has said the missile defense technology must be proven to work before he would sign off on its deployment in Europe. However, his administration would probably continue its current missile defense programs, Time magazine reported. Two top candidates to lead the Defense Department -- current Defense Secretary Robert Gates and former Navy Secretary Richard Danzig -- both support the effort.

Obama himself has indicated that he saw the need for such technology. "I actually believe that we need missile defense because of Iran and North Korea and the potential for them to obtain or launch nuclear weapons," he said during the presidential campaign.

Obama might also back the program to show that he is not cowed by threats from Moscow, according to U.S. officials

Global Security Newswire, 17/11/08

Pakistan reopens Kyber pass

Pakistan deployed a hastily assembled "quick reaction force" of crack combat soldiers into the Khyber Pass yesterday to smash through Taliban positions and reopen the vital road link serving coalition forces in Afghanistan.

Armed with shoot-to-kill orders from Islamabad, the soldiers are riding shotgun on the hundreds of trucks that travel into Afghanistan each day carrying vital supplies for the US-led coalition forces. Helicopter gunships patrol overhead to guard the convoys against attacks launched by so-called "miscreants".

The new force last night reopened the road to the supply convoys that provide a lifeline for the coalition operations. Kokikhel tribesmen in the area had been warned to stop their attacks or face a full-scale onslaught by the army.

The Australian, 18/11/08

Pentagon argues for slower withdrawal

President-elect Barack Obama is facing an early confrontation with the Pentagon over the hot-button issue of how fast to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq, with some senior officers arguing for a slower drawdown.

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters that the withdrawal should be driven solely by conditions on the ground in Iraq. The statement ran counter to Mr. Obama's frequent calls for a fixed timetable for a drawdown.

Many senior military officials agree with Mr. Obama's call to withdraw tens of thousands of troops from Iraq next year. They believe that the large U.S. military presence in Iraq is causing significant manpower strains on the armed forces and preventing needed reinforcements from being sent to Afghanistan, where conditions have worsened in recent months.

Still, there is a fair amount of skepticism within the Pentagon about Mr. Obama's call to have all U.S. forces out of Iraq by 2010. In recent interviews, two high-ranking officers stated flatly that it would be logistically impossible to dismantle dozens of large U.S. bases there and withdraw the 150,000 troops now in Iraq so quickly. The officers said it would take close to three years for a full withdrawal and could take longer if the fighting resumed as American forces left the country.

Wall Street Journal, 17/11/08

Iraq cabinet approves pact

Iraq’s cabinet on Sunday overwhelmingly approved a proposed security agreement that calls for a full withdrawal of American forces from the country by the end of 2011. The cabinet’s decision brings a final date for the departure of American troops a significant step closer after more than five and a half years of war.

The proposed agreement, which took nearly a year to negotiate with the United States, not only sets a date for American troop withdrawal, but puts new restrictions on American combat operations in Iraq starting Jan. 1 and requires an American military pullback from urban areas by June 30. Those hard dates reflect a significant concession by the departing Bush administration, which had been publicly averse to timetables.

Iraq also obtained a significant degree of jurisdiction in some cases over serious crimes committed by Americans who are off duty and not on bases.

New York Times, 16/1108

Pakistan closes NATO's principle supply route to Afghanistan

Pakistan closed the Torkham border crossing in the Khyber tribal agency. The road through the Khyber Pass is NATO's primary supply line into Afghanistan. The government claimed poor security on the strategic road into Afghanistan forced the closure. The road has been shut down exclusively for NATO traffic.

Geo TV, Pakistan, 15/1/08

Israel and India could oppose US regional response

Will Israel and India – the first the United States’ closest ally and the second fast becoming one of the closest – emerge as the trickiest adversaries in any attempt by the United States to seek a regional solution to Afghanistan?

The Washington Post reported earlier this week that the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama plans to explore a more regional strategy to the war in Afghanistan — including possible talks with Iran.

The idea has been fashionable among foreign policy analysts for a while. The aim would be to capitalise on Shi’ite Iran’s traditional hostility to the hardline brand of Sunni Islam espoused by the Taliban and al Qaeda to seek its help in neighbouring Afghanistan. At the same time India would be encouraged to make peace with Pakistan over Kashmir to end a cause of tension that has underpinned the rise of Islamist militancy in Pakistan and left both countries vying for influence in Afghanistan.

But Israel has already cautioned Obama against talking to Iran, which it said would be a seen as a sign of weakness in efforts to persuade Tehran to curb its nuclear programme. And Obama’s suggestion that the United States should try to help resolve the Kashmir dispute has raised hackles in India, which resents any outside interference in what it sees as a bilateral dispute. That could make the two countries important allies in combating — or at least reshaping — any attempt to remould U.S. strategy.

Are we going to see more signs of Israel and India working together — if necessary to resist rather than support U.S. policy? And in an increasingly multi-polar world, will Obama discover that he needs to watch the United States’ friends as closely as its enemies to drive through his plans for change?

Ruters, 15/11/08

Obama must 'rebuild and reshape military'

Troops and equipment are so overtaxed by President Bush’s disastrous Iraq war that the Pentagon does not have enough of either for the fight in Afghanistan, the war on terror’s front line, let alone to confront the next threats.

This is intolerable, especially when the Pentagon’s budget, including spending on the two wars, reached $685 billion in 2008. That is an increase of 85 percent in real dollars since 2000 and nearly equal to all of the rest of the world’s defense budgets combined. It is also the highest level in real dollars since World War II.

To protect the nation, the Obama administration will have to rebuild and significantly reshape the military. We do not minimize the difficulty of this task. Even if money were limitless, planning is extraordinarily difficult in a world with no single enemy and many dangers.

The United States and its NATO allies must be able to defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan — and keep pursuing Al Qaeda forces around the world. Pentagon planners must weigh the potential threats posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions, an erratic North Korea, a rising China, an assertive Russia and a raft of unstable countries like Somalia and nuclear-armed Pakistan. And they must have sufficient troops, ships and planes to reassure allies in Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

New York Times, 15/11/08

UK troop toll reaches 300

The deaths of Neil Dunstan and Robert McKibben, both 32, in a bomb blast on Wednesday afternoon brought the numbers of British personnel who have died during the military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan to 300. In total, 124 service personnel have died in Afghanistan since 2001, while 176 have died in Iraq.

Independent, 16/11/08

US withdrawing to bases in Iraq

The U.S. military in Iraq is abandoning, deliberately and with little public notice, a centerpiece of the widely acclaimed strategy it adopted nearly two years ago to turn the tide against the insurgency. It is moving American troops farther from the people they are trying to protect.

Starting in early 2007, with Iraq on the brink of all-out civil war, the troops were pushed into the cities and villages as part of a change in strategy that included President Bush's decision to send more combat forces. Now the Americans are reversing direction, consolidating in larger bases outside the cities and leaving security in the hands of the Iraqis while remaining within reach to respond as the Iraqi forces require. The U.S. is on track to complete its shift out of all Iraqi cities by June 2009.

The shift is not explicitly linked to U.S. plans for increasing its military presence in Afghanistan, but there is an important connection: The logistical resources needed to house and supply a larger and more distributed U.S. force in Afghanistan have been tied up in Iraq. To some extent that will be relieved with the consolidation of U.S. forces in Iraq onto larger, outlying bases that are easier to maintain.

These moves coincide with priorities expressed by President-elect Obama during his campaign: reducing the U.S. military commitment in Iraq and putting more resources into Afghanistan.

Associated Press, 15/11/08

Taliban 'will never negotiate' while occupation continues

The Taliban will never enter into peace negotiations with any Afghan or Western authorities while foreign forces still remain in Afghanistan, and will continue to fight for the country's "freedom," a spokesman told CBC's As It Happens on Thursday.

Taliban spokesman Qari Yusuf Ahmadi said peace talks would mean "we are playing with the future of the nation and it will be not good for the nation."

"We will never talk to anyone. We are not ready for peace talks," said Ahmadi. He rejected suggestions that there may be some dissenting elements of the Taliban that favour negotiating with Afghan or Western parties, adding the Taliban is a group united under one leader — Mullah Omar, who went into hiding seven years ago.

Ahmadi's comments echo those made by other senior Taliban leaders of late, who have spurned recent attempts by Afghan President Hamid Karzai to reach out to them.

CBC News, Canada, 13/11/08

Israel emboldened by presence of US force

Pictures of an American anti-missile radar installed in southern Israel were released earlier this week, depicting a recently completed military base, which will house the first permanent U.S. force to be deployed on Israeli soil.

The radar is connected to a U.S. satellite warning system, which is meant to bolster Israel's defensive capabilities by issuing an immediate warning in the event of an enemy missile launch.

But no less novel is the American presence that comes along with the high powered technology. 120 American civilians and soldiers will be stationed in Israel for the first time, and it could be interesting to see whether that presence will affect Israeli military decisions with regards to its neighbors.

Haaretz, Israel, 12/11/08

UK may send more troops for Obama

Up to 2,000 extra British troops are likely to be sent to Afghanistan next year, the BBC has learned. Ministers are considering sending reinforcements to Afghanistan to meet an expected request from Barack Obama, when he becomes US president next year.

The UK already has 8,100 troops in Helmand province and British ministers have publicly argued any extras should come from elsewhere in Europe in order to share the burden more fairly.

But the BBC's diplomatic correspondent James Robbins said that privately ministers and officials conceded the new president would still ask for a greater British fighting effort. He said they also made it clear that no government would want to say no to President Obama early in his term of office, particularly given his huge following. Our correspondent said some British officials accepted it might be necessary to commit up to 2,000 more soldiers next year.

But among Britons, there appears to be a public appetite to pull out. A BBC-commissioned poll suggested nearly 70% favoured bringing the troops home.

BBC News, 14/11/08