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News archives for the week ending 20th August 2010

US still has combat troops in Iraq

Of the roughly 50,000 American military personnel who remain in Iraq, the majority are still combat troops -- they're just named something else. The major units still in Iraq will no longer be called "brigade combat teams" and instead will be called "advisory and assistance brigades." But a rose by any other name is still a rose, and the differences in brigade structure and personnel are minimal.

American troops in Iraq will still go into harm's way. They will still accompany Iraqi units on combat missions -- even if only as "advisers." American pilots will still fly combat missions in support of Iraqi ground forces. And American special forces will still face off against Iraqi terrorist groups in high-intensity operations. For that reason, when American troops leave their bases in Iraq, they will still, almost invariably, be in full "battle rattle" and ready for a fight.

Washington Post, 20/8/10

US moves to tighten grip in Pacific...

In its annual report to Congress on the Chinese military this week, the U.S. Department of Defense "voiced alarm over China's military buildup," with particular emphasis on what was described as the nation "investing heavily in ballistic and cruise missile capabilities that could one day pose a challenge to U.S. dominance in the western Pacific."

2010 has signalled Washington's return to Asia and, in particular, concerted and mounting actions to challenge its main economic rival in the world: China.

The Pentagon is currently conducting large-scale war games in South Korea, the second major joint exercises since late last month, and on August 18 Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman announced that the U.S. will hold anti-submarine warfare maneuvers with South Korea in the Yellow Sea, which borders Chinese territory to the north and the west.

Eurasia Review, 20/8/10

...and steps up spending on arms

The Obama administration, despite the plans to reduce the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, has asked for $708 billion for the US military for 2011. Of this, $549bn is earmarked for basic military expenditures and the remaining $159bn for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Not only is the amount of $708bn nearly equivalent to the military spending of all other nations in the world combined, but it is about seven times as much as China spends and 13 times as much as Russia.

If approved, it will be an increase in total defence spending of 2.2%, which is ironically 6.1% higher than peak defence spending during the George W. Bush administration.

Leadership Magazine, 20/8/10

US to rely on 7,000 contractors in Iraq

As the United States military prepares to leave Iraq by the end of 2011, the Obama administration is planning a remarkable civilian effort, buttressed by a small army of contractors, to fill the void.

The State Department is planning to more than double its private security guards, up to as many as 7,000, according to administration officials. Defending five fortified compounds across the country, the security contractors would operate radars to warn of enemy rocket attacks, search for roadside bombs, fly reconnaissance drones and even staff quick reaction forces to aid civilians in distress, the officials said.

The Obama administration had already committed itself to reducing American troops in Iraq to 50,000 by the end of August, a goal the White House on Wednesday said would be met. Administration officials and experts outside government say, however, that carrying out the agreement that calls for removing all American forces by the end of 2011 will be far more challenging.

The progress or difficulties in transferring responsibility to the civilians will not only influence events in Iraq but will also provide something of a test case for the Obama administration’s longer-term strategy in Afghanistan.

To move around Iraq without US troops, the State Department plans to acquire 60 mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles; expand its inventory of armoured cars to 1,320; and create a mini-air fleet by buying three planes to add to its lone aircraft. Its helicopter fleet, which will be piloted by contractors, will grow to 29 choppers from 17.

The department’s plans to rely on 6,000 to 7,000 security contractors, who are also expected to form “quick reaction forces” to rescue civilians in trouble, is a sensitive issue, given Iraqi fury about shootings of civilians by American private guards in recent years.

The startup cost of building and sustaining two embassy branch offices — one in Kirkuk and the other in Mosul — and of hiring security contractors, buying new equipment and setting up two consulates in Basra and Erbil is about $1 billion. It will cost another $500 million or so to make the two consulates permanent. And getting the police training program under way will cost about $800 million.

New York Times, 19/18/10

U.S. Strategy in Pakistan Is Upended by Floods

The floods in Pakistan have upended the Obama administration’s carefully honed strategy there, confronting the United States with a vast humanitarian crisis and militant groups determined to exploit the misery, in a country that was already one of its thorniest problems.

While the administration has kept its public emphasis on the relief effort, senior officials are busy assessing the longer-term strategic impact. One official said the disaster would affect virtually every aspect of the relationship between the United States and Pakistan, and could have ripple effects on the war in Afghanistan and the broader American battle against Al Qaeda.

With Pakistan’s economy suffering a grievous blow, the administration could be forced to redirect parts of its $7.5 billion economic aid package for Pakistan to urgent needs like rebuilding bridges.

“It certainly has security implications,” said another official, “An army that is consumed by flood relief is not conducting counterinsurgency operations.”

With 20 million people displaced from their homes, the Pakistani authorities are girding themselves for an immense migration to the major cities, which they fear could sow further instability.

Pakistani and American officials said reports of hard-line Islamic charities providing relief were exaggerated. One pointed out that the floods had hurt the insurgents as well: there was a report of small arms and ammunition belonging to a militant group floating in the water.

Still, people in both countries warned that if rebuilding and rehabilitation efforts bogged down, the Taliban and other militant groups would try to take advantage of it. “The real test is, can their government provide the most fundamental services?” said an administration official.

New York Times, 18/8/10

Afghanistan is Obama's war

Afghanistan was dubbed ‘Obama’s War’ last night after it was revealed that as many American soldiers have died in the conflict during his presidency as during George Bush’s entire time in office.

According to the latest death tally, 575 U.S. troops have lost their lives in Afghanistan in the 20 months since Barack Obama took office in January last year.

That is the same number of fatalities the U.S. military suffered under Mr Bush, who launched the Afghan invasion nine years ago in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.

Daily Mail, 18/8/10

US warns Karzai on corruption

The Obama administration on Tuesday delivered what might be its toughest warning yet to President Hamid Karzai over corruption in his government through a messenger who in the past has managed to forge a rapport with the mercurial Afghan leader in times of tension.

Sen. John F. Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, flew in for a one-day visit to the Afghan capital that included two sessions with Karzai, whose relations with the United States have plunged to a low not seen since last summer's fraud-riddled presidential election.

Karzai and the West are in the midst of a confrontation over his efforts to assert control over two Afghan bodies set up with U.S. backing to combat high-level graft and fraud. The dispute burst into the open last month after a senior aide to Karzai was targeted in a bribery investigation.

Karzai has stopped short of trying to shut down or significantly restrict the activities of the Major Crimes Task Force and the Sensitive Investigative Unit. But he has hinted he may seek to do so, a prospect that has caused concern among his Western patrons that has only increased as the Karzai government has failed to live up to its frequent promises to curb corruption.

Los Angeles Times, 17/8/10

Karzai to ban mercenary forces in Afghanistan

President Hamid Karzai is planning to sign a decree this week ordering the disbanding of all private security forces by the end of the year, his spokesman said Monday.

But it is not clear how the move, which would constitute an extraordinary change in the security makeup of the country, could be carried out. There are at least 24,000 private armed guards in the country, some foreign but most Afghan, and there is no immediately available alternative for the array of crucial tasks they perform.

They escort convoys of supply trucks across dangerous roads to NATO military bases, protect government and military buildings, and provide protection for political leaders and others.

President Karzai had been under pressure to bring private security companies under control, since a United States Congressional investigation and news reports have asserted that the private guards often behave recklessly and, in some cases, even bribe Taliban insurgents to allow supply convoys to pass unmolested.

Some security companies are so large that they constitute private armies of thousands of armed men, who can challenge or ignore local governments.

New York Times, 16/8/10

US and UK seek to extend influence in Kazakhstan

About 50 U.S. and British troops joined more than 1,000 Kazakh service members Monday for a two-week military exercise, a sign of NATO's efforts to win clout in Russia's Central Asian backyard.

The eighth annual 'Steppe Eagle' program aims to train Kazakh troops for future deployment with NATO peacekeepers.

The United States is vying with Russia for influence in ex-Soviet Central Asia, a region bordering Afghanistan and Iran that the Kremlin sees as within its sphere of influence.

Washington operates an important air base in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan supplying its troops in Afghanistan, and relies on other Central Asia states for ground shipments of supplies.

Reuters, 16/8/10

China diversifies out of US debt

China's ownership of US government debt has dropped to the lowest level in at least a year, Treasury data showed Monday, in a sign Beijing is increasingly keen to diversify out of US bonds.

The cash-rich Chinese government reduced its US Treasury bond holdings to 843.7 billion dollars in June, the lowest level since at least the same month last year, the Treasury said in a report on international capital flows.

China has repeatedly criticized the United States for its snowballing debt levels, fearing its investment in US government bonds could turn sour if a debt crisis erupts.

There are worries that if China, which remains the top foreign holder of US debt, continues to diversify away from US bonds it will become much harder for the United States to finance its mounting debt burden.

The US government data Monday also showed Japan as continuing to be the second top foreign holder of US debt, followed by Britain.

Japan held 803.6 billion dollars worth of Treasury bonds in June, higher than the 786.7 billion dollars in May, while Britain had 362.2 billion dollars in US bond holdings, up from 350.0 billion dollars, according to the data.

AFP, 16/8/10

Iraq attacks increase during Ramadan

Roadside bombs, booby-trapped cars and hit-and-run attacks reverberated across Iraq on Sunday, another violent day following insurgents’ threats to escalate their attacks during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. In the past two days, at least 19 people were killed in the attacks.

While insurgents have sought to make dramatic gestures lately — raising their flag in prominent Baghdad neighborhoods and burning the bodies of policemen they have killed — more remarkable is the drumbeat of assaults day after day on Iraq’s security forces.

New York Times, 15/8/10

US contractor investigated for overcharging

A U.S. contractor managing more than $1 billion in reconstruction contracts in Afghanistan faces federal criminal and civil investigations of claims that it overcharged the government for work, according to federal court documents.

Federal prosecutors are focusing on whether the Louis Berger Group, based in Morristown, N.J., submitted inflated invoices to the U.S. Agency for International Development, which oversees many of the government's international development projects.

The allegations come as U.S. officials spar with Afghan President Hamid Karzai over allegations of corruption in his government. Karzai has questioned U.S.-led investigations of corruption in Afghanistan and argued that international donors have ignored corruption in billions of dollars worth of development projects they have handled.

Associated Press, 14/8/10

Arab opinion increasingly hostile to Israel and US

So why is Arab public opinion toward Iran shifting? According to our polling, a majority of Arabs do not believe Iran's claim that it is merely pursuing a peaceful nuclear program. But an overwhelming majority believe that Iran has the right to develop nuclear weapons and should not be pressured by the international community to curtail its program.

Even more telling, a majority of those polled this year say that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, the outcome would be positive for the Middle East. In 2009, only 29% of respondents viewed that as a positive.

The shortest path to understanding this turn in Arab public opinion is to examine Arab views of American foreign policy in the Middle East. In the early months of the Obama administration (spring 2009), our polling found that a remarkable 51% of those surveyed expressed optimism about American policy in the Middle East, a stark contrast to nearly a decade of gloom that preceded Obama's election. A little over a year later, however, the number of optimists had dropped to only 16%, with 63% expressing pessimism.

This pessimism, more than any other issue, explains the turn in Arab attitudes toward Iran. Arabs tend to view Iran largely through the prism of American and Israeli policies. Most Arabs have no love for Iran, and many see the country as a significant threat. But the Arab public does not see Iran as the biggest danger in the region.

In an open question asking about the two countries that pose the biggest threats to their security, 88% of respondents identified Israel, 77% identified the United States, and only 10% identified Iran. The angrier the public is with Israel and the United States, the less they worry about Iran, viewing it first and foremost as "the enemy of my enemy."

Los Angeles Times, 14/8/10

Taliban takes hold in north of Afghanistan

With most Afghan and NATO troops stationed in the country's south and east, villagers in the path of the Taliban advance into the once-peaceful north say they are powerless and terrified, confused by the government's inability to prevail -- and ready to side with the insurgents to save their own lives.

"How did the Taliban get into every village?" Israel Arbah asked from his mud hut in the Shah Qassim village of Faryab province. "They are everywhere. And they are moving very fast. To tell you honestly, I am really, really afraid."

In the past year, security in northern Afghanistan has deteriorated rapidly as insurgents have seized new territory in provinces such as Kunduz and Baghlan, and even infiltrated the scenic mountain oasis of Badakhshan, where 10 members of a Christian charity's medical team were massacred this month. Each new northern base is becoming a hive of activity, with fighters rotating in and out, daily planning meetings and announcements at the mosque.

The U.S. military does not believe the Taliban has made a strategic decision to target the north to avoid the bulk of NATO forces in the south, according to a U.S. military official. But a former senior Afghan intelligence official based in the north said that is "absolutely" what has happened.

Washington Post, 15/8/10

Petraeus might advise delaying withdrawal from Afghanistan

Gen. David Petraeus, the new U.S. commander in Afghanistan, said that he could "certainly" advise President Obama to delay the Afghanistan troop draw down slated to begin in July 2011, if that's what the conditions on the ground called for.

The New York Times reports that U.S. military officials are building a case to downplay the president's promise to begin leaving Afghanistan next summer and that Petraeus is "taking several steps" to show Washington that a rapid withdrawal would be ill-advised.

When asked whether his job is to "slow down the Washington clock," Petraeus said, "I think our job is again to show those in Washington that there is progress being made and to do that we've got to build on the progress that has been established so far because there is certainly nothing like irreversible momentum."

Petraeus' interview is reportedly the start of a several week media blitz by the general to try to boost public support for his mission.

CBS News, 13/8/10

Colombia aims to rebalance relationship with US

Juan Manuel Santos is not wasting any time. Three days after being inaugurated as Colombia's president, he met Tuesday with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez; the two leaders restored diplomatic ties and reviewed how to better manage their countries' often volatile relationship. U.S. relations with Colombia -- Washington's major Latin American ally over the past decade -- may be on the verge of some important changes as well.

In seeking to ease tensions with Chávez, Santos faces a fundamental dilemma: balancing a more diplomatic approach toward Venezuela with an overall strategic alignment with the United States. Chávez surely will continue to challenge such an alignment and try to curtail U.S. influence in the region.

The Colombian "special relationship" with the United States, cultivated during the Bush administration, when Latin America often viewed Uribe as doing Washington's bidding, does not help Santos's pursuit of a more balanced foreign policy.

Although the United States has been Colombia's closest ally in fighting rebels and drugs, for Colombia the relationship often resulted in isolation from neighbors.

Santos, who attended the University of Kansas and Harvard, is expected to maintain close ties with the United States. He would welcome congressional passage of the bilateral free-trade pact (which the Colombian Congress approved in 2006) and the continuation of the decade-long Plan Colombia aid, with a greater emphasis on the social questions that are so salient on his domestic agenda.

But for all of Santos's knowledge of Washington, his foreign policy priorities seem to lie elsewhere. Colombians are tired of often-futile visits to Washington aimed at convincing U.S. lawmakers that they should back the trade deal.

Santos's inaugural address did not mention the United States. As president-elect he toured European and Latin American capitals but not Washington. For Colombia, it seems, as increasingly for the rest of Latin America, it is time to move on in the world.

Washington Post, 12/8/10