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News archives for the week ending 15th August 2008

Britain and US deny interfering in Pakistan

British and American diplomats are attempting to find an exit for Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf, a staunch western ally, before he is dragged through a humiliating impeachment process.

"We're being told [by western envoys] that it's not going to bring more stability to have a long trial. And that it is in the interests of stability for him to exit," said one senior coalition politician.

Sir Mark Lyall Grant, director of political affairs at the British Foreign Office, currently in Pakistan, is said to spearheading the message of caution. Lyall Grant met Asif Zardari, leader of the Pakistan People's Party, one of the two big parties in the coalition, on Tuesday night at the British high commission. He held a separate meeting with Sherry Rehman, a senior minister, and he also saw Musharraf, the FCO confirmed.

American diplomats are also engaged in an intensive round of meetings. The deputy US ambassador, Peter Bodde, is understood to have met Zardari in the last couple of days. American ambassador Anne Patterson saw Nisar Ali Khan, a senior member of Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League-N, the other main group in the coalition. Sources in Sharif's party said her message was: "Give Musharraf safe passage."

However, spokesmen for both the British and US missions denied that they were seeking to interfere. Aidan Liddle, a spokesman for the British embassy, said: "We are very clear that we have no role to play in this impeachment process. Britain has no interest in talking about the fate of individuals."

Guardian, 14/8/08

Russia calls the shots

The French-brokered truce between Russia and Georgia early today leaves Moscow calling the shots in the energy-rich Black Sea littoral and Caspian Basin. The quick and easy victory exposes the west's lack of leverage over Russia, despite years of American political investment in Georgia.

The impact of Mikheil Saakashvili's rash gamble in storming South Ossetia last week, and of Vladimir Putin's comprehensive rout of the Georgians, will ripple in many directions. In less than a week, Putin has redrawn the geopolitical map of the contested region between Russia, Turkey and Iran.

"We don't look very good," said a former Pentagon official long involved in Georgia. "We've been working on Georgia for four years and we've failed."

While Russia walks tall, Saakashvili will struggle to survive. The Europeans are already divided; Nato splits over Georgia and Ukraine will widen. American policies in the region have been severely set back. Western energy policy is looking flaky.

A main objective for Putin was to destabilise Georgia to invalidate its aim of joining Nato. He may have succeeded.

Guardian 13/8/08

US military to deliver Georgian relief aid

President Bush said the U.S. military will lead a humanitarian aid effort to Georgia and that he expects Russia to withdraw all troops sent into the country since fighting started. U.S. air and naval forces will help to deliver aid, he said.

By using the military to deliver humanitarian relief and dispatching Condoleeza Rice to Tbilisi, Bush is signaling the U.S. is firmly committed to Georgia and to exerting its own influence in the region, said Cliff Kupchan of New York-based Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.

The moves are "a symbolic shot across the bow that enough's enough," Kupchan said. "It's as much pushback with hardware as the U.S. can, or should, muster at this point."

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said sending U.S. navy ships to the region wouldn't be "the best way'" to deliver humanitarian aid.

Bloomberg.com 13/8/08

Iraq oil contracts with west are stalled...

Oil negotiations between a handful of foreign companies and the government here appear stalled, setting back once again efforts to open up Iraqi oil fields to international companies.

A petroleum law that would provide a legal framework for foreign investment has long languished in Parliament. Still, momentum had built up in the spring and early summer for a series of limited so-called technical-service contracts negotiated between a group of major oil companies and the Iraqi Oil Ministry.

The Oil Ministry, which had been championing the deals for months, is now balking. Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahrastani in an interview said that is because the companies are insisting that part of the payment for the consulting work be in oil, and the foreign companies want preferential treatment for future oil-exploration deals.

Political sensitivities in Baghdad also appear to be in play. After wresting control of its oil resources from Western powers decades ago, many Iraqis are still loath to see foreign companies back.

Wall Street Journal, 13/8/08

...as China signs $1.2billion deal

Iraq and China are set to revive a $1.2 billion oil deal that was cancelled after the 2003 United States-led invasion, Iraq's Oil Ministry said yesterday. An initial agreement with China is expected to be signed this month to develop the billion-barrel Ahdab oil field south of Baghdad.

"Iraq and China are keen to show their co-operation by finalising an agreement on developing the Ahdab oil field," the ministry said. If the deal is signed it will be the first Saddam Hussein-era oil deal to be honoured by the new Iraqi regime.

New Zealand Herald, 12/8/08

Afghans at British base beg for protection

The company that provides services and logistics for the British army has come under fire for ignoring the increasing security needs of its local staff in Afghanistan as the Taliban steps up its attacks on army support employees.

Up to 400 Afghan staff working for KBR at the Camp Bastion base in Helmand, south Afghanistan, have been barred from joining flights to Kandahar and told they must travel by road - one of the most dangerous journeys in the country.

The Taliban is known to be targeting local staff who work for the British or US army as traitors, but this summer has seen an unprecedented number of attacks against caterers, mechanics and interpreters who all work at the base, with 10 staff being killed in July alone.

Ahmed (not his real name) said he was too scared to leave the base despite the fact that he had not seen his family for more than six months. "My family does not know whether I am dead or alive. We are not allowed to use phones so I was looking forward to my holiday. But now I am too scared to leave because the Taliban are waiting just outside and I will get killed," he said.

He offered money to KBR to join any flight to Kandahar, he said, but was told it was not possible. "My boss said the flights are for priority staff only. It seems some human life is more valuable than others."

Guardian, 12/8/08

Use of contractors in Iraq costs $100 billion

The United States this year will have spent $100 billion on contractors in Iraq since the invasion in 2003, a milestone that reflects the Bush administration's unprecedented level of dependence on private firms for help in the war, according to a government report to be released Tuesday.

The report, by the Congressional Budget Office, according to people with knowledge of its contents, will say that one out of every five dollars spent on the war in Iraq has gone to contractors for the United States military and other government agencies, in a war zone where employees of private contractors now outnumber American troops.

The Pentagon's reliance on outside contractors in Iraq is proportionately far larger than in any previous conflict, and it has fueled charges that this outsourcing has led to overbilling, fraud and shoddy and unsafe work that has endangered and even killed American troops.

The role of armed security contractors has also raised new legal and political questions about whether the United States has become too dependent on private armed forces on the 21st-century battlefield.

New York Times, 11/8/08

Ossetia referendum ignored

Georgian President, Mikhail Saakashvili, has set his sights on bringing the two breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia back under Georgian control, and tensions have risen since his election in 2004.

In 2006 another referendum on autonomy was held in the region, after South Ossetia failed to get recognition for the results of their first referendum back in 1992. However, despite 99 per cent of those who voted choosing independence, and 34 monitors from several different countries observing proceedings, it has still failed to gain recognition abroad.

Channel 4 News, 11/8/08

Money as a weapon system

A U.S. Army program in which soldiers pay cash to Iraqis to help with expenses, large and small, has spent $2.8 billion in five years, The Washington Post reported Monday. The Post reviewed records of the Commander's Emergency Response Program, which was intended for short-term humanitarian relief and reconstruction.

The field manual laying out the guidelines for the program is called "Money as a Weapon System," pointing up the effectiveness of cold hard cash in winning over the hearts and minds of Iraqi civilians.

The largest sum of CERP money, $596.8 million, was spent on water and sanitation projects, the Post reported. Three other categories each received more than $300 million: electricity, protective measures (such as fencing and guards), and transportation and roads.

But the Army also spent lesser sums on smaller acts of largesse, including $48,000 for children's shoes; $50,000 for 625 sheep; $100,000 for dolls; and $500,000 for action figures designed to look like Iraqi security forces, the Post reported.

Associated Press, 11/8/08

Political turmoil in Pakistan

Pressure is mounting on Pakistan's beleaguered President Pervez Musharraf from his own allies to step down before the ruling coalition tries to impeach him this month, officials said on Sunday.

Pakistan has been in political turmoil since early last year. The United States and its allies fear a prolonged political and constitutional crisis will lead to instability in the nuclear-armed state and partner of Washington in its war on terror, and uncertainty has unsettled markets and investors.

The governing coalition led by the party of slain former prime minister Benazir Bhutto decided on Thursday to move to impeach Musharraf, saying he plunged Pakistan into political and economic crises during nearly nine years of single-handed rule.

Western countries worry political uncertainty will distract Pakistan from fighting al Qaeda, the Taliban and other Islamist factions whose influence has spread across the northwest of the Muslim country and who use Pakistan as a base for operations in Afghanistan.

Reuters 10/8/08

Oil pipeline at centre of Ossetia issue...

The gas and oil pipelines that run through Georgia are of strategic importance to Western Europe because they reduce dependence on Russian supplies and do not cross Russian territory.

Two major pipelines take supplies from the oil and gas fields in the Azeri region of the Caspian Sea through the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. From there they head south, away from the breakaway South Ossetia region and into Turkey, then onwards into the European Union.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, led by BP, was opened in 2006 and is capable of pumping one million barrels per day of Azeri crude along the 1,040-mile route to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. It is the first pipeline to carry large volumes of crude out of the Caspian without going through Russia. Yesterday Russian war planes dropped bombs near the pipeline, but caused no damage.

Russia's vast natural reserves have allowed it to position itself as a rival to Middle Eastern nations in supplying energy to the West. However, its hostility to BP and Shell, which had supplied investment to begin exploiting its resources, have spurred Europe to look for alternatives.

Daily Telegraph, 9/8/08

...which explains the US stance in the region...

For the United States, the key to the pipeline has been cementing firm relationships with the three states - Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan - through which the pipeline passes.

America has given generous aid to all three nations. It turned a blind eye to Turkish raids on Kurdish guerrillas in Iraq, was silent about rigged elections in Azerbaijan, and since 2002 has had US troops in Georgia training the locals. In April it backed Georgia's call to join Nato.

The Scotsman on Sunday, 10/8/08

...and Israeli involvement

"Georgian government officials used to tell me that they wanted to model their army after the Israeli Defence Force," former Israeli ambassador to Georgia Shabtai Zur told Ynet Sunday evening amid the country's bloody feud with Russia over the separatist region of South Ossetia.

The fighting which broke out over the weekend between Russia and Georgia has brought Israel's intensive involvement in the region into the limelight. This involvement includes the sale of advanced weapons to Georgia and the training of the Georgian army's infantry forces. The former envoy said the ongoing tension between Georgia and the separatist provinces brought Israeli experts to the area.

"The private company of Brig.-Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch (Galilee Division commander during the Second Lebanon War) has been operating in Georgia for some time now and is providing consultation to the Georgian army," he noted.

Ynet, Israel, 10/8/08

From Iraq to Ossetia

Half of Georgia's 2,000 troops in Iraq plan to leave the country by Monday to join the fight against separatists in the breakaway province of South Ossetia, with the rest following as soon as possible, their commander said.

"First of all we need to remove 1,000 guys from here within 96 hours, after that the rest of the guys," Colonel Bondo Maisuradze told The Times this morning.

"The US will provide us with the transportation," he added.

Sunday Times, 10/8/08

al-Sadr broadens social role

Moktada al-Sadr, the anti-American Shiite cleric, said Friday that he would divide his Mahdi army militia in two: one elite unit of fighters and a group that would work on community and religious programs.

There have been previous signals that the Sadrists were shifting the emphasis from armed to community activities, as its militia found its operations increasingly curtailed by recent major American and Iraqi military operations in its strongholds, including Basra, Amara and the Sadr City district of Baghdad.

However the Sadrists remain a potent force on the streets. Tens of thousands turned out in the center of Sadr City for prayers on Friday, and the Iraqi Army kept its Humvees and armored vehicles well back, leaving Sadrist stewards to maintain order. As the crowd departed, many chanted: "No, no to America" and "No, no to occupation."

In Najaf, Sheik Salah al-Obaidi, the principal spokesman for Sadr, said that the remaining armed groups would "take direct orders from Sayyed Moktada al-Sadr only in emergency cases" and would "only target the American forces."

International Herald Tribune, 8/8/08

Iraqis say withdrawal deal is close

The Iraqi government said Thursday a deal with the U.S. was close at hand for the eventual withdrawal of American combat forces by 2010, and all U.S. forces three years after that. The Associated Press reported that it was told of the agreement by two unnamed Iraqi officials, but added the U.S. government said no firm dates had been agreed upon.

According to the report, the agreement calls for parts of the Green Zone - where the U.S. embassy is located - to be turned over to Iraqi control by the end of 2008. It also calls for the removal of U.S. forces from Iraqi cities by June 30, 2009, said two senior Iraqi officials whom the AP said were close to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

If both sides agreed, the terms could be amended to keep U.S. forces in-country longer in what has been termed a "face-saving" clause should security conditions worsen.

Iraqi and U.S. officials both agreed the deal was not final. A major sticking point is immunity from prosecution for American forces under Iraqi law.

NewsroomAmerica.com, 7/8/08