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News archives for the week ending 13th August 2010

US cutting financial support to Iraq...

The US State Department, headed by Hillary Clinton, has indicated that it is facing a $400 million (£244 million) shortfall in funding after its request for money for Iraq was rejected by the US Senate. One billion dollars needed to equip the Iraqi army has also been withdrawn.

The Pentagon has also so far refused to agree to a request for dozens of military vehicles and helicopters to remain in Iraq following the army pullout at the end of the month.

The disclosures will add to growing fears in Iraq that America is seeking to "cut and run" from the country as Barack Obama's focus switches to Afghanistan.

Daily Telegraph, 11/8/10

...but troops will stay until 2020

Iraq will need U.S. military support for up to another decade to defend its borders because the Iraqi army won't be ready to guard the country when American troops leave at the end of 2011, according to U.S. and Iraqi commanders.

Commanders say they are reasonably confident in the Iraqi security forces' ability to keep order while facing insurgents or other internal threats. But when it comes to their capacity to protect against attacks from other nations, it is inconceivable that the Iraqi army will be able to stand alone by the time U.S. troops go home, said Lt. Gen. Michael Barbero, commander of the U.S. military training program in Iraq.

An Iraqi Ministry of Defense strategy document projects that Iraq won't be capable of defending its borders until 2020, said the chief of staff of the Iraqi armed forces, Gen. Babakir Zebari.

"In general, Iraqi soldiers and officers would like the American forces to stay in Iraq until they're capable of doing the job 100%," he said. "Not a huge force, just three or four bases."

Los Angeles Times, 12/8/10

Israel to attack Iran within a year?

Israel may launch a unilateral attack on Iranian nuclear facilities within a year if the Obama administration fails to assure Tel Aviv that it is serious about foiling Tehran's atomic ambitions, a media report said.

Israel will carry out the military attack without asking for Washington's famous "green light" or even give couple of false pre-attack alerts, according to Atlantic magazine's yet-to-be published story, obtained by Ha'aretz daily.

"...one day next spring, Israeli national security adviser, Uzi Arad, and Israeli defence minister, Ehud Barak, will simultaneously telephone their counterparts at the White House and the Pentagon, to inform them their PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, has just ordered roughly one hundred F-15Es, F-16Is, F-16Cs, and other aircraft of the Israeli air force to fly east toward Iran," the article says.

The article's authorJeffery Goldberg bases his arguments on dozens of interviews he conducted in recent months with Israeli, American and Arab officials and is of the opinion that the possibility of an Israeli strike has crossed the 50% mark.

Times of India, 12/8/10

US reassures India on military aid to Pakistan

A senior US defence official sought Tuesday to soothe India's concerns about US weapons supplies to arch-rival Pakistan.

US Undersecretary for Defence Michelle Flournoy said that Washington was "clearly observing" how these arms were being used by Pakistan.

Indian Defence Minister A.K. Antony said last month that the scale of US military assistance to Pakistan was "disproportionate to the war on terror" for which it was intended.

"We feel that there is every possibility of diverting this sophisticated equipment against India," Antony said, during talks with the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen.

India has previously protested the proposed delivery of unmanned US drones to Pakistan.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since the division of the subcontinent in 1947, and their relationship is beset by mutual mistrust.

Washington sees Pakistan as integral to winning the war in Afghanistan, as Taliban and Al-Qaeda-linked insurgents targeting coalition forces roam the mountainous region dividing the two countries.

Pakistan receives more than one billion dollars a year from Washington for its help combating the Islamist militants.

AFP, 10/8/10

US to continue to buy influence in Iraq

The outgoing commander of U.S. forces in Iraq said Tuesday that Iraqi security forces will continue to rely heavily on American funding as the U.S. troop drawdown accelerates, forcing them to take on more responsibility.

Gen. Ray Odierno and other American officials have been urging U.S. lawmakers to reconsider plans to substantially cut the amounts the military and State Department have requested for Iraq initiatives next year.

Keeping a robust civilian-led U.S. presence as the military ends its combat mission later this month will be costly, but Odierno said it was important to "fund that in such a way where we can continue to engage, continue to develop and continue to have influence in pushing Iraq forward."

Washington Post, 10/8/10

Huge US weapons sale to Saudi Arabia (with Israeli agreement)

The U.S. is preparing to sell Saudi Arabia 84 Boeing F-15 Strike Eagle jet fighters for $30 billion in a deal that could eventually grow in size to include Sikorsky-made Black Hawk helicopters, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Suppliers of major weapons systems have pushed to expand their international sales as the U.S. government faces increasing pressure over a yawning federal budget deficit.

Though the Journal article published Monday didn't name the F-15 variant being offered, it did say the jets being sold would be "ideal" for fighting Yemeni rebels, which would likely make it the F-15E.

The F-15E variant, designed for air-to-surface attacks, was successful in wiping out Iraq's radar and missile systems during the 2003 U.S. invasion. The 10-year package being proposed won't include on-board targeting systems as advanced as those used in U.S. or Israeli fighter aircraft in part to garner Israeli approval, the newspaper said. Otherwise, Israel could exert pressure on Congress to block the agreement.

Israel still has "some reservations," but leaders in Tel Aviv aren't expected to challenge the deal, the Journal said.

Market Watch, 9/8/10

Iran’s economic ties with Iraq increase

Iran's new ambassador to Iraq said Tuesday that trade between the one-time rivals will double in the near future, even as his country is under stringent international sanctions over its nuclear program.

The prediction by Hassan Dannaie Fir reflects the strengthening of relations between the two Shiite-led neighbours who fought a ruinous eight-year war starting in 1980.

The growing ties have worried the U.S. as Washington looks sharply to scale back troop presence in Iraq by the end of the month and withdraw all forces next year.

Fir described Iraq as a "fertile market" for Iranian goods, adding that he doesn't believe "the sanctions will affect the economic ties."

Trade between the two neighbours stands at about $7 billion per year, with the overwhelming majority stemming from Iranian exports to Iraq.

The boost came after Saddam Hussein's ouster in 2003, with the collapse of his Sunni regime giving Tehran a new foothold in Iraq. Many of Iraq's current Shiite political elite took refuge in Iran during Saddam's rule.

The Shiite-led government in Baghdad has been a boon for Iran, whose economy was already in poor condition before the fourth round of U.N. sanctions imposed in June. Those measures were further supplemented by sanctions by the U.S. and the European Union, leaving Iran with an increasingly narrowing sphere of trading partners.

Bloomberg Business week 10/8/10

U.N. report says Afghan civilian toll up 31%

Civilian casualties in the Afghan conflict have risen by 31 percent in the first half of 2010, U.N. officials said on Tuesday, blaming insurgents for most of them.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan said in its mid-year report that 1,271 civilians had been killed in conflict-related incidents in the first six months of 2010.

"We are very concerned about the future because the human cost of this conflict is being paid too heavily by civilian Afghans and that's why this report is a wake-up call," Staffan de Mistura, the special representative of U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, told a news conference.

There were a total of 3,268 civilian casualties over the period, including 1,997 wounded, he said.

Deaths and injuries among children attributed to insurgents were up 55 percent from 2009, the report said, noting the use of more sophisticated improvised explosive devices throughout the country and a 95 percent increase in assassinations.

"Afghan children and women are increasingly bearing the brunt of the conflict," he said. "They are being killed and injured in their homes and communities in greater numbers than ever before."

The Taliban and other insurgents were responsible for 76 percent, or 2,477, of casualties. The report found that there were 386 casualties attributed to "pro-government forces", down to 12 percent of the total from 30 percent the year before. This was attributable mainly to a 64 percent fall in the number of deaths and injuries caused by aerial attacks, it said.

Reuters 10/8/10

US expects more violence in Iraq

The U.S. expects attacks in Iraq to continue to spike as the holy month of Ramadan begins this week, a top American general warned today after explosions in the southern city of Basra resulted in one of the deadliest weekends in months.

Lt. Gen. Robert W. Cone, the deputy commanding general of U.S. forces in Iraq, and his Iraqi counterpart told reporters that insurgents were also likely taking advantage of the lack of a government to launch a series of high-profile attacks aimed at reducing confidence in Iraqi security forces.

ABC News, 9/8/10

US military aid to Lebanon put on hold

The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee said Monday he has suspended U.S. military aid to the Lebanon's army amid growing concern in Congress that American-supplied weapons could threaten Israel.

Rep. Howard Berman, D-Calif., said he placed a hold on $100 million in assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces on Aug. 2, because he was concerned about influence the militant group Hezbollah may have in the army. He said those concerns were reinforced a day later when Lebanese soldiers shot and killed an Israeli officer along the two countries' border.

"Until we know more about this incident and the nature of Hezbollah influence on the (Lebanese army) — and can assure that the (Lebanese army) is a responsible actor — I cannot in good conscience allow the United States to continue sending weapons to Lebanon," Berman said in a statement.

He noted that the United States has since 2006 given the Lebanese army about $720 million in aid, including M-16 assault rifles, missile launchers, grenade launchers and night-vision goggles in addition to training.

Both the Bush and Obama administrations have backed sending aid to Lebanon's army, maintaining that a professional military is critical for the government to exert its sovereign authority, which has been challenged by armed Hezbollah militants.

Associated Press, 10/8/10

Islamist groups feed tens of thousands in floods

Also standing to benefit from the disaster are Pakistan's hard-line Islamist groups, pushed to the sidelines by elections and weakened by military offensives. Unlike the civilian government and the army, which took days to marshal aid, Islamist groups boasted of efficient networks of volunteers. This is especially true in the volatile northwest, where the bulk of the devastation is taking place.

The Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation, a charity and alleged front group for the banned Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) — which was blamed for the 2008 Mumbai massacre — has for days been feeding tens of thousands of affected people. Drawing on a similar popularity achieved during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, members of the group say they receive donations from the urban middle class of Punjab, who are turning increasingly to religious conservatism.

Such aid will make it difficult for the government to crack down on the do-gooders, no matter how malevolent Islamabad alleges their motives to be.

"The government now finds itself in an awkward position," says Shaikh. "If there is any pressure for it to move against these groups, it's going to find itself in much the same position as Gen. Musharraf, who during the Kashmir earthquake said, 'We need all the help we can get from whatever source.' Given the circumstances, for it to now act against groups who are seen to be doing a sterling job in terms of helping people will be absolutely suicidal."

Time Magazine, 9/8/10

al-Qaeda in Iraq 'pretty much intact'

On the eve of the end of the U.S. combat mission in Iraq, extremist groups "are very much alive," according to the U.S. Special Forces commander here. Though weakened by the deaths of top leaders and a drop-off in foreign funding, al-Qaeda in Iraq's "cellular structure" remains "pretty much intact," Brig. Gen. Patrick M. Higgins said in his first interview since taking command in Baghdad last fall.

Although al-Qaeda in Iraq no longer appears capable of carrying out the type of massive bombings that targeted prominent government buildings last year, the Sunni extremist organization and other groups continue to conduct attacks almost daily.

Washington Post, 9/8/10

Floods strengthen military's hand in Pakistan

The Pakistan government's poor response to the worst floods in the country's history has damaged its fragile democracy, while the powerful military establishment has gained stature with its emergency relief work, analysts said.

The sheer magnitude of the disaster would have tested any government. However, the Pakistani government's failures - as well as the absence of President Asif Ali Zardari, who was in Britain and France as the catastrophe unfolded - have contrasted with the military's ability to deliver assistance, with the army rescuing more than 100,000 people.

Washington is banking on Pakistan's civilian leadership to rein in the military, which is alleged to support some Islamic extremist groups, including the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan has spent more than half its 63-year existence under military rule, with the last such period ending in 2008 with Zardari's election.

The pictures of what some have dubbed Zardari's "joy ride," including a visit by helicopter to a 16th century chateau he owns in Normandy and a five-star luxury hotel stay in London, have played continuously on television, fueling popular anger.

Miami Herald, 9/8/10

Karzai wants to rid Afghanistan of mercenaries

Afghan security forces will be more than capable of safeguarding the country, the government said on Sunday, repeating in some of its strongest criticism yet that troublesome Western private security units should be disbanded.

Private security companies competing for contracts worth billions of dollars have long been an irritant for Afghan and U.S. and NATO forces in the country after a series of scandals.

The companies, who the Afghan government estimates employ 30,000-40,000 guards, work mainly for Western enterprises in Afghanistan. Last year, the U.S. government said it did not know how many contractors, of any kind, it employs in Afghanistan.

Karzai has criticised private security guards often in the past but launched a stinging attack at the weekend, saying they were too costly and were "daily creating miseries."

"They trample our people's rights and disrupt security," Karzai told the Civil Services Institute in a speech on Saturday. "We ask the international community to dissolve these private security companies because Afghanistan no more has the ability to afford these companies."

Yahoo News, 8/8/10

US keeps option of combat in Iraq

The official end of “combat” in Iraq on Aug. 31 is, in fact, not the end of much; it is, instead, the fulfillment of a policy promise — that by September, Americans would remove themselves from explicit combat and limit their mission to training Iraqis and helping them in their own fights.

As of Sept. 1, the 50,000 troops who remain will be part of six brigades organized as trainers — a much thinner force than the 140,000 there when Mr. Obama took office. They will be stationed at a few large bases, to which they have already been withdrawn.

These troops could still be sent into combat, depending on what happens around them. But that possibility has been relegated to an unwanted contingency — one the Obama administration hopes is remote — rather than the mission.

For the American forces, that seems to indicate a period of uncertainty, especially with Iraq’s political process at a stalemate for months. What would happen if, for example, Iraq’s political crisis flares into violence? What if Al Qaeda in Iraq regains control of neighborhoods or villages? What do American troops do if Iraq’s security forces launch a coup?

“My sense is the military sees the terms of the advise-and-assist role as sufficiently broad to do whatever the U.S. command authority and the Iraqi command authority want to do, including combat,” said Ryan C. Crocker, the former ambassador in Baghdad.

New York Times, 7/8/10

Al-Qaida offers cash to former allies

Al-Qaida in Iraq has begun offering cash to lure back former Sunni allies angry over the government's failure to give them jobs and pay their salaries on time, according to Sunni tribesmen and Iraqi officials.

The recruitment drive adds to worries that the terror network is attempting a comeback after the deaths of its two top leaders in April and is taking advantage of a summer of uncertainty. The political stalemate in Baghdad is entering its sixth month after inconclusive elections, just as the U.S. military is rapidly drawing down its forces.

Al-Qaida's strategy is to provoke the Shiite majority into launching revenge attacks — a development that could re-ignite open warfare, split the Iraqi security forces along sectarian lines and cement al-Qaida's leadership role among Sunnis.

Associated Press, 6/8/10

Political vacuum continues in Iraq

Iraqis elected a new parliament in March. There was no clear winner. And five months later there is still no agreement on a coalition government.

On Wednesday, the United Nations Security Council called on the politicians to settle their differences. It urged them to form "as quickly as possible, a government that is inclusive and represents the will of the Iraqi people."

The top United Nations diplomat in Iraq says the delays are creating conditions that opponents of democracy could use for their own gain. Ad Melkert told the Security Council that the delays affect the rebuilding of basic services in Iraq. He said Iraqis average about nine hours a day without electric power

Voice of America, 7/8/10