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News archives for the week ending 12th June 2009

Violence in Afghanistan at new high

The violence that has surged for two years in Afghanistan reached a new high last week, and more difficulty lies ahead, the United States' top war zone commander said Thursday. Gen. David Petraeus said the number of attacks in Afghanistan over the last week hit the highest level since the December 2001 fall of the Taliban.

"Some of this will go up because we are going to go after their sanctuaries and safe havens as we must," Petraeus, head of U.S. Central Command, said during a speech at the Washington think-tank Center for a New American Security.

"But there is no question the situation has deteriorated over the course of the past two years in particular and there are difficult times ahead," he said.

Associated Press, 11/6/09

Obama's Iran troubleshooter is friend of Israel

Diplomatic troubleshooter Dennis Ross is a legendary talker, a specialist in developing peace processes -- long ones. For 12 years, in the first Bush presidency and both terms of the Clinton presidency, he was at the center of the seemingly endless effort to settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

As one of the main architects of the Obama administration's Iran policy, Ross is crafting a way to reach out to Iran to persuade its leaders to abandon any plan to develop nuclear weapons.

Ross is undertaking this assignment amid questions in Washington about whether he has sufficient clout in the nascent Obama administration. And in the Middle East, many officials view him as too pro-Israel, raising concerns about whether he is the right person for the job of coaxing the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Even a former colleague, Aaron David Miller, wrote last year that "Dennis, like myself, had an inherent tendency to see the world of Arab-Israeli politics first from Israel's vantage point."

Ross has written that his admiration for Israel has not hurt his effectiveness as a negotiator. Nevertheless, Iranian officials "think any policy will be run through Israel before it gets to them and they will be stuck with policies that are unworkable," said Flynt Leverett, a former National Security Council staff member who recently met with Iranian diplomats.

Washington Post, 10/6/09

Oil companies move in on Kurdish oil

Until last week, the defining aspect of Iraqi Kurdistan’s oil wealth was how little of it was coming out of the ground.

But a June 1 ceremony, attended by officials from both the Kurdistan and Baghdad governments, saw limited oil start to flow from the area. And although scepticism remains about the durability of this breakthrough, the move has prompted a round of consolidation among the region’s oil operators.

On Tuesday Heritage Oil announced a merger with Turkey’s Genel Energy to create a FT 100 oil company whose initial focus will be Kurdistan.

Paul Atherton, Heritage finance director, said that the merged company has ambitions to be a “new regional giant” among the small oil explorers drilling in a patchwork of licence areas in Kurdistan, which borders Iran and Turkey.

Financial Times, 9/6/09

Military spending surges worldwide

Global military spending surged to a record $1,464bn last year, with the US maintaining its position as the world's leading arms spender, a report by a Swedish monitoring group has said.

China became the world's second biggest military buyer, increasing its spending by 10 per cent to an estimated $84.9 bn last year, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) said on Monday.

US military expenditure rose 9.7 per cent last year to $607bn, accounting for 42 per cent of total global arms spending, the report said. France overtook Britain to become the world's third biggest arms spender while Russia climbed to fifth place from seventh in 2007.

Other countries such as India, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Brazil, South Korea and Algeria also contributed substantially to the total increase. Arms shipments rose 4 per cent worldwide from 2007 and 45 per cent higher than in 1999, the report said.

About 23,300 nuclear weapons were held in the arsenals of eight states: the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, India, Pakistan and Israel.

Al Jazeera, 8/6/09

'We can't help Pakistan more than they want to be helped'

Navy Adm. Eric Olson told the House Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee on terrorism, unconventional threats and capabilities that the United States stands ready to do whatever it can to help Pakistan combat extremists, but “I think that we can't help Pakistan more than they want to be helped,” he added.

Pakistan is a proud country with a proud military tradition, and America cannot take actions that would cause the Pakistani military to appear to be an extension of the U.S. military, Olson said.

The Pakistanis also have never forgotten the cut-off of military contacts in 1990 as a result of the Pressler Amendment, which sought to pressure Pakistan into not developing nuclear weapons. Even though full relations were re-established between the countries in 2003, Olson said, a full generation of Pakistani officers did not work with their American counterparts.

United States Central Command, 5/6/09

Karachi political killings adds to instability

A wave of violence between rival political factions is sweeping Pakistan's biggest city of Karachi with at least 26 members of the hostile groups killed in the past week, police said on Monday.

Karachi port is the main gateway for Western military supplies bound for Afghanistan and serious insecurity could disrupt shipments and pile pressure on the government. While the violence has been confined to targeted tit-for-tat shootings, there are fears street clashes could erupt in the country's commercial hub, which is home to its main port and financial markets.

The violence in the city of 16 million people is between Karachi's dominant political force, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), and a breakaway faction known as the Mohajir Qaumi Movement, or Haqiqi group, as they vie for influence. Both factions draw their support from the Urdu-speaking families of people who moved to Pakistan from India upon independence from Britain in 1947.

Washington Post, 8/6/09

Settlements row may hit Israel's economy

Differences with U.S. President Barack Obama over Jewish settlement of occupied West Bank land that Palestinians want for a state has some experts predicting a price in terms of U.S. fiscal support and investment for Israel.

Some diplomats say Washington could eventually reconsider Israel's receipt of hefty U.S. loan guarantees or $3 billion in annual defence aid. That would scare off foreign investors seeking a buffer against Middle East instability.

There are also signs the European Union, Israel's biggest export market, could follow the American lead by making a concerted push to prevent products from settlements from receiving tax privileges within the 27-nation bloc. Though marginal, settler products could harm Israeli exports as a whole by forcing an overhaul of labelling practices. European clients may wonder if Israel is worth the hassle.

But any changes in U.S. policy are unlikely to come soon. Obama must contend with pro-Israel backing in Congress, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could pre-empt a confrontation by changing the make-up or peace policies of his right-leaning coalition government.

Reuters, 7/6/09

Lebanon vote will test US attitude

Lebanese go to the polls on Sunday in an election that will determine whether the volatile country remains tilted towards the west or shifts closer to Iran and Syria.

The race has been too close to call but some polls predict that the March 8 coalition, which includes Hizbollah, the armed Shia movement, will win a two or three seat advantage in the 128-strong parliament, providing an early test of US president Barack Obama’s attitude on Arab democracy.

Such a development would give Washington cause for concern but would come as a fillip for Tehran, where President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad is seeking re-election in the Iranian presidential vote that starts on Friday.

In his speech to the Muslim world in Cairo on Thursday, Mr Obama struck a different tone to the Bush administration, suggesting he would be more accepting of governments that are democratically elected. Some analysts said the speech constituted an outreach to Islamic political parties, but whether that includes Hizbollah is unclear.

Hizbollah officials said on Friday they were unimpressed by the US president’s words. “He talks about elections and full determination but the American administration is the number one supporter of dictatorships in the region,” a senior Hizbollah official told the Financial Times.

The election of a Hizbollah-dominated government would probably prompt Washington to reconsider its billions of dollars in annual aid, especially its military assistance.

The race is so tight that political parties have been flying in thousands of supporters from as far afield as Canada and Australia – Lebanese rules do not allow overseas voting.

Financial Times 7/6/09

Gordon Brown to announce Iraq War inquiry

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is poised to announce details of a long-awaited inquiry into the Iraq War and its consequences.

He could make the announcement within days as part of his “fightback” plan aimed at reasserting his political authority and appeasing his critics on Labour’s backbenches. MPs had been expecting the announcement of the inquiry in the autumn, but it is understood that Mr Brown’s political travails have seen timings brought forward.

The inquiry’s verdict – which could be potentially politically damaging for Tony Blair, Mr Brown and other senior Labour figures – would still almost certainly not be known until after the next general election, which must be held by early June 2010.

The pressure for an inquiry has been intense because many people believe that the war was illegal under international law and that Tony Blair presented intelligence about weapons of mass destruction in order to justify the invasion, notably with the so-called “dodgy dossier” when information was allegedly “sexed up”

. The nature of the then-attorney general Lord Goldsmith’s advice to the Government over the legality of the 2003 invasion, and whether he succumbed to political pressure to change it, has also been a significant bone of contention. Mr Blair has always insisted the 2003 invasion was legal.

The main previous investigation into the war, conducted by Lord Butler in 2004, included criticism of the way some intelligence was interpreted by the government. However, it did not find that ministers intended to deceive the public, for example over pre-invasion claims that Saddam was stockpiling weapons of mass destruction, when none subsequently been found.

Telegraph 7/6/09

'Symbiotic' US-Saudi partnership continues

US exports to the Kingdom are rising in value, but represent a falling percentage of total Saudi imports, the Saudi British Bank said in its latest report on US-Saudi Trade Relations released on Thursday. It said, moreover, that a huge expansion in Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity is set to help meet US and global needs.

The bank noted that the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia is based on a symbiotic relationship involving an understanding, but not always agreement, about politics, economics and security issues.

The sum of these three elements makes the relationship “special”, but also symbiotic. It is a relationship in which the partners cannot be easily disentangled. It is also a relationship that is often misunderstood and subject to misinformation. For the US, Saudi Arabia is a politico-strategic partner in the Middle East.

Saudi Gazette, 6/6/09

More special forces to Afghanistan

The Pentagon is sending 1,000 more special operations forces and support staff into Afghanistan to bolster a larger conventional troop buildup, and is revamping the way Army Green Berets and other commandos work to rid villages of the Taliban.

The movement comes as Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, a special operator who led successful manhunts in Iraq for Al Qaeda terrorists, is about to take command in Afghanistan. McChrystal, who underwent a Senate Armed Services confirmation hearing Tuesday, is expected to put more emphasis on using commandos in counterinsurgency operations and on finding or killing key Taliban leaders.

Fox News, 5/6/09

British deaths in Afghanistan pass those in Iraq

A 19-year-old rifleman from Reading has become the 137th British serviceman to die from hostile fire in Afghanistan, the military says.

The death of Cyrus Thatcher means that Britain has suffered more casualties in Afghanistan than the 136 deaths recorded in Iraq before its combat operations ended there last month, The Times of London reported Friday.

UPI, 5/6/09

Israel will defy US on settlements

Israel will not heed President Barack Obama's powerful appeal to halt all settlement activity on lands the Palestinians claim for a future state, officials said Friday, a position that looks sure to cause a policy clash with its most powerful ally.

During a visit to Germany on Friday, the U.S. leader renewed his call for Israel to halt settlement activity in the West Bank, saying that he recognized the politics involved in Israel that made it difficult to accomplish this task. He also pressed his call for the creation of an independent Palestinian state, saying: "The moment is now for us to act."

Both positions are in conflict with Israel's new leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, who refuses to endorse Palestinian statehood or accept a settlement freeze.

"With all due respect to President Obama, and there is respect, and to the deep friendship between Israel and the United States, no foreign leader of another country will set policy in Judea and Samaria," lawmaker Ofir Akonis of Netanyahu's Likud Party told Army Radio. Judea and Samaria are the Hebrew terms used for the West Bank.

Obama himself is being careful to avoid an open clash with Israel. In his speech, which was designed to heal rifts between the U.S. and the Muslim world, Obama described America's ties to Israel as "unbreakable."

For their part, Palestinian officials praised Obama's speech but urged him to back it with action. "Words are good, but change requires deeds," said Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat. He said Obama should come up with a new peace plan "with timelines, monitors and mechanisms for implementation."

Associated Press, 5/6/09

US special forces spread around the world

As the U.S. and its allies pressure insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan, there will be a greater need for intelligence in North Africa where extremists seek sanctuary, the military's top special operations commander told Congress on Thursday.

Adm. Eric T. Olson, head of U.S. Special Operations Command, told the House Armed Services terrorism subcommittee Thursday that increased military pressure "will not necessarily end the (insurgent) activity, it will shift some of the sanctuaries to other places."

Counterterrorism officials have warned that battle-hardened extremists have been moving from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to safe havens in north and east Africa, bringing sophisticated terrorist tactics with them.

Special operations forces can only grow by 3 percent to 5 percent a year, Olson said. But the need for those units to deploy in hot spots around the globe is outpacing that growth, he said. The mobile, specially trained units carry out more secretive anti-terror missions, and in a number of countries they are used to train foreign forces.

Associated Press, 4/6/09