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News archives for the week ending 6th March 09

Pakistan poses global security worry

The top US diplomat in Kabul warned yesterday that Pakistan posed a bigger security challenge to America and the world than Afghanistan, as Islamabad grappled with the latest terrorist attack on its soil and the escalating Taliban insurgency on its north-western border.

Christopher Dell, who currently runs the US embassy in Kabul, was speaking in the aftermath of the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore and the news that Pakistani Taliban groups had formed a common front to attack Nato troops in Afghanistan, in what is widely expected to be a bloody and possibly decisive summer this year.

"From where I sit [Pakistan] sure looks like it's going to be a bigger problem," Dell said in an interview in the heavily fortified US embassy in Kabul. "It is certainly one of those nuclear armed countries the instability of which is a bigger problem for the globe."

Senior officials in the Foreign Office and the Obama administration have privately expressed concern that Pakistan could prove to be more of a danger to global peace and security in the long run than Afghanistan, because of its nuclear weapons and its highly politicised and Islamicised secret service, the Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI).

Barack Obama is particularly alarmed at the decline in Pakistan's stability, and appointed a special envoy, Richard Holbrooke, to Afghanistan and Pakistan to coordinate diplomatic efforts.

Major General John MacDonald, the new deputy commander of US forces in Afghanistan, predicted that the coming surge in the number of coalition troops in Afghanistan would lead to an increase in fighting. He said those troops would be used to push into places hitherto considered no-go areas for Nato troops. "So yes, this summer you will see more violence," he said. "We're just about to kick a beehive."

Guardian, 5/3/09

Electoral commission rebuffs Karzai

Afghanistan's election commission yesterday strongly rejected the dates selected by Hamid Karzai, president, for elections, injecting new uncertainty into a crucial period of transition for this struggling, western-backed democracy.

Mr Karzai, who has led Afghanistan for seven years and hopes to be re-elected, issued a decree last week which, in effect, ordered the polls to be held in April or May. The commission, which had previously ruled the election should be delayed until August, on Wednesday defied his decree and reaffirmed its position. Commission members said it would be impossible to hold free and fair elections by the spring, citing poor security, lack of voter access in remote areas and other difficulties.

The dispute heightens doubts about Afghanistan's stability at a time when the country is fighting a revived Taliban insurgency, is plagued by corruption and drug trafficking, and is still trying to consolidate civilian rule after seven years of international aid and military support. It leaves unresolved the critical question of who will lead the country in the months between May and August.

Financial Times, 5/3/09

Lobbyists push for more UK arms spending

Britain will cease to be a major player in world affairs and we will lose our influence with the United States unless there is a significant increase in funding for our armed forces. This decision cannot wait until after the next General Election but must be made now.

In a hard-hitting policy paper, “A decision the next Prime Minister must make”, published by the United Kingdom National Defence Association (UKNDA) and endorsed by former Chief of the Defence Staff General Lord Guthrie and former Foreign Secretary Lord Owen, the UKNDA’s Tony Edwards says that Britain has a clear choice: to continue with proactive foreign & defence policies – and fund them – or compromise towards purely reactive policies. The UKNDA paper is also endorsed by Marshal of the RAF Sir Peter Harding, Air Marshal Ian Macfadyen and Admiral Sir John Treacher.

Edwards argues that to close the gap and repair the damage done to our military capability by years of under-investment, there must be an increase in the defence budget of £5Bn in the first year followed by £10Bn in the second and then £15Bn extra every year until the appropriate balance has been restored.

If these increases are not forthcoming, the UK must learn to accept a diminishing role in the world and must rely instead on other countries to play what has historically been Britain’s role as “a force for good in the world”.

Defpro.com, 3/3/09

Clinton affirms 'unshakeable' support for Israel...

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has restated "unshakeable" support for Israel, whatever type of government emerges from current coalition talks.

After meeting Mr Peres, Mrs Clinton said it was important to underscore the "unshakeable, durable and fundamental" US support for the state of Israel… [and] our "unrelenting commitment to Israel's security".

" I know this is a sensitive time in Israeli politics as the process of forming a new government unfolds. This is a matter for the Israeli people to decide under Israeli law," she added.

During Mrs Clinton's visit, Israeli warplanes bombed smuggling tunnels on the border between Gaza and Egypt, injuring six people according to Palestinian medical sources.

BBC News, 3/3/09

...continues boycott of Hamas...

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Tuesday ruled out working with any Palestinian unity government that includes Hamas if Hamas does not agree to recognize Israel.

"In the absence of Hamas agreeing to the principles that have been adopted by such a broad range of international actors, I don't see that we or they -- or anyone -- could deal with Hamas," Clinton said in an interview with CNN.

CNN, 3/3/09

...and aims to use Syria to increase pressure on Palestinians

Signaling a new direction in Middle East diplomacy, the Obama administration will send two senior officials to Syria this weekend to begin discussions with the government, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said on a visit to Israel on Tuesday.

By seeking an understanding with Syria, which has cultivated close ties to Iran, the United States could increase the pressure on Iran to respond to its offer of direct talks. Such an understanding would also give Arab states and moderate Palestinians the political cover to negotiate with Israel. That, in turn, could increase the burden on Hamas, the Islamic militant group that controls Gaza, to relax its hostile stance toward Israel.

New York Times, 3/3/09

NATO may ask China for Afghanistan help

NATO may ask China to provide support for the war effort in Afghanistan, including possibly opening a supply link for alliance forces, a senior U.S. official said Monday.

The subject is still under consideration and no decision has been reached on whether to approach Beijing, the official said on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue.

One way Beijing could help would be to open an alternate logistics route through western China into Afghanistan, the U.S. official said in Brussels. China shares a 50-mile long border with Afghanistan in the Wakhan Corridor, a thin sparsely populated strip of Afghan territory separating Pakistan and Tajikistan. The 2,000-year-old-caravan route — once used by Marco Polo — is now a dirt road that crosses some of the world's most mountainous regions.

Until now, China — which also has faced problems with Islamic militants in its western regions — has generally been supportive of the Afghan government and the U.S.-led allied war effort. But Beijing has shied away from involving itself too closely in the conflict.

Associated Press, 2/3/09

Clinton negative on Iran thaw

Expressing doubts about one of the Obama administration’s most important diplomatic initiatives, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told an Arab foreign minister on Monday that she did not expect Iran to respond positively to an American offer of direct negotiations.

This was not the first time Mrs. Clinton had privately expressed skepticism about Tehran’s receptivity to the United States overture. But her reference to it in talks with an Arab state is noteworthy because it offered a foreign audience a glimpse into the calculations of the Obama administration.

American officials privately say an overture to Iran could pay off, no matter how it reacts. A positive response would be a breakthrough, while a rebuff could put Tehran on the defensive, potentially undermining the posturing of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at home and encouraging America’s allies to intensify sanctions against the government.

New York Times, 2/3/09

Obama increases non-military aid to Pakistan

In an admission that its dependence on the Pakistani military has yielded few results against the Taliban, the United States is now seeking to change its relationship with Pakistan – the world's sole Muslim nuclear power and home of Al Qaeda's leadership.

President Barack Obama's first budget, released last week, proposes significant increases in nonmilitary aid to Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan. In addition, two influential senators are expected to file legislation in the coming days that would triple nonmilitary US aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion a year and include $5 billion to stave off an imminent economic crisis.

The shift is part of an increasing awareness within the Beltway of Pakistan's precarious position – beset by economic collapse, political weakness, and a spreading insurgency – and that more than military operations will be needed to build a stable state capable of beating back Islamic extremism in the long term.

Christian Science Monitor, 2/3/09

Karzai calls for early elections in Afghanistan

Opposition politicians in Afghanistan have accused the president, Hamid Karzai, of constitutional brinkmanship that threatens to turn Afghanistan into "a new Zimbabwe" after he called for a snap presidential election to be held in April.

Karzai yesterday called for the poll to be held before 21 April, despite the country's independent election commission (IEC) warning that millions of voters would be disenfranchised by the insurgency in the country's south and snow-clogged roads in the mountainous north.

The Barack Obama administration – already believed to be losing patience with Karzai's government – formally lodged its disapproval, saying the election should take place on 21 August, the date set by the IEC.

The conventional diplomatic wisdom in Kabul is that Karzai does not expect to fight an early election but wants to wrongfoot his opponents, who have demanded that he stands down on 21 May, when the constitution demands.

There is huge constitutional uncertainty, however, about should who run the country until fresh elections can be held.

Observer, 1/3/09

Falling oil price hits Iraq security spending

Falling oil prices will force Iraq to cut back on military spending, leaving questions about whether it can handle tasks such as protecting oil platforms in the Gulf once the American pullout is complete, a top U.S. commander said.

Iraq's leaders now have to decide where the cuts will be deepest: arms, patrol boats or air power — all of which the country needs to create a fully functioning security force. "It's a matter of capability and how much risk they are willing to take to spread that capability out ... because the money is so tight," Lt. Gen. Frank Helmick, commander of Multi-National Security Transition Command, told The Associated Press on Saturday.

Iraq's security plans for this year have been dragged down along with the price of oil, which is now about $45 a barrel after hitting highs last summer of $150 a barrel. Iraq's government has been forced twice to cut planned spending — from $79 billion to $68 billion and then to $64 billion.

AFP, 1/3/09

Afghan-border missile attack kills 8

A missile attack near Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, believed to have been carried out by a U.S. drone aircraft, killed at least eight people Sunday, Pakistani officials said.

The strike, the first of its kind since a high-level Pakistani military delegation visited the United States last week, suggested the Obama administration intends to press ahead with a campaign of targeting militants in Pakistan's tribal areas.

Drone attacks in the tribal areas intensified during the last months of the Bush administration; about 30 such strikes were carried out in the last half of 2008.

Pakistan has publicly protested the raids, but it is widely believed that the civilian government, led by President Asif Ali Zardari, sanctions them. The attacks, highly unpopular with Pakistanis, have been politically sensitive for Zardari's government, which is fending off a strong challenge from popular opposition leader Nawaz Sharif. Pakistan's Supreme Court, in a controversial verdict, last week banned Sharif and his politician brother, Shahbaz Sharif, from holding elective office.

Los Angeles Times, 1/3/09

Iraq death toll lower overall but still high

The number of civilians and U.S. soldiers killed by violence in Iraq rose slightly in February, but fighting claimed far fewer lives than it has in previous years, data showed on Sunday.

The Iraqi Ministry of Health said 211 civilians were killed in February, up from 138 in January but still the second lowest monthly death toll since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein.

In February last year, 633 Iraqi civilians died violent deaths and the same month in 2007 saw 1,645 civilians killed. Eleven U.S. soldiers were killed in combat in February this year, compared with eight in January, according to www.icasualties.org, which collates official data.

Reuters 1/3/09

Britain to start withdrawing troops from Iraq at the end of March

The Foreign Secretary made the admission during a visit to Basra, when he announced that the pull-out would begin on March 31. Until now, the exact date of the start of the withdrawal has remained secret amid fears that the announcement could spark unrest.

Mr Miliband also said that the invasion of Iraq was a just cause and the country now represented a land of opportunity for Britain. He said that the security crisis facing the city had been overcome and Iraq could now become a major force within the region and a permanent ally of the West.

It can also be revealed that all military operations in southern Iraq will cease on May 31. Almost all of the 4,100 British troops currently serving in the country will leave by the end of July.

Mr Miliband revealed the pull-out dates on the same day that President Obama declared that most US troops would leave Iraq by August of next year, with the remainder leaving by the end of 2011.

In an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, the Foreign Secretary added that Britain was not seeking regime change in Iran and would stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States in seeking a 100 per cent diplomatic resolution to Tehran's nuclear weapons programme. Mr Miliband also revealed that he had told Pakistan that it had to do more to prevent al-Qaeda terrorists crossing into Afghanistan and killing British troops there.

Daily Telegraph, 28/2/08

US deaths spike in Afghanistan

U.S. deaths in Afghanistan increased threefold during the first two months of 2009 compared with the same period last year, after thousands more troops deployed and commanders ramped up winter operations against an increasingly violent insurgency.

As troops pour into the country and violence rises, another sobering measure has also increased: More Afghan civilians are dying in U.S. and allied operations than at the hands of the Taliban, according to a count by The Associated Press. In the first two months of the year, U.S., NATO or Afghan forces have killed 100 civilians, while militants have killed 60.

President Barack Obama recently announced the deployment of 17,000 additional troops to bolster 38,000 already in the country, increasing the U.S. focus on Afghanistan while a drawdown begins in Iraq.

The latest casualty toll among U.S. forces could portend a deadlier year in Afghanistan than the U.S. military has experienced since the Taliban's ouster in 2001. Twenty-nine U.S. troops died in Afghanistan the first two months of 2009 — compared with eight Americans in the first two months of 2008.

AFP, 1/3/09

US may boycott UN racism conference

The Obama administration has said it will boycott a major U.N. conference on racism scheduled for April unless significant changes are made to the draft outcome document, which U.S. officials say unfairly singles out Israel for censure and could restrict freedom of speech.

A State Department official said that the current text is "unsalvageable" and that the United States would reconsider its position only if the negotiators stripped out provisions criticizing Israel's occupation of Palestinian lands and recommendations for restrictions on the defamation of religions, an initiative by Islamic states that Washington fears could undercut free speech.

The United States also opposes any language requiring reparations for slavery.

Washington Post, 28/2/09

Obama announces Iraq withdrawal, sort of

President Barack Obama announced yesterday that he will withdraw all US combat troops from Iraq within 18 months and all remaining American soldiers by the end of 2011. The pullout will bring to an end one of the most divisive wars in US history, in which 35,000 US troops, as well as hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, have been killed or injured.

"I have chosen a time-line that will remove our combat brigades over the next 18 months," said Mr Obama. "Let me say this as plainly as I can: by August 31, 2010, our combat mission in Iraq will end."

Mr Obama has sought to defuse criticism from US military circles and the Republicans by delaying the withdrawal of most US combat soldiers from Iraq until next year, and by keeping 35,000 to 50,000 troops there until the end of 2011 to train and equip the Iraqi army and police.

Democratic Party leaders complained that too many US soldiers will still be in Iraq two years from now.

Independent, 28/2/09

Afghanistan still largest opium poppy producer

Afghanistan remained the largest opium poppy producer, which increasingly fuels the Islamist insurgency there, despite a 19-percent drop in cultivation last year, the US government said Friday.

The fall resulted from "a combination of poor weather conditions, decreased opium prices relative to other crops, and improved governance and security in key provinces," the report added.

"The connection between poppy cultivation, the resulting narcotics trade, and funding of insurgency groups became more evident in 2008," according to the report. "Nearly all significant cultivation now occurs in insecure areas with active insurgent elements."

More than 14 percent of Afghans were involved in poppy production in 2007, up from 12.6 percent the previous year.

AFP, 27/2/09

Iraq war 'was not worth it'

President Barack Obama's Iraq withdrawal announcement Friday was likely to stoke a painful debate: With thousands of US dead, countless Iraqis killed, and nearly one trillion dollars spent, was the war worth it?

Vastly unpopular former president George W. Bush has said the invasion was the right decision, that opinion polls are fickle, and that history may vindicate him if Iraq emerges as a viable pro-Western democratic state.

But, for now, surveys show the US public has fiercely repudiated the war six years after it began, with 60 percent saying it was "not worth it," according to an ABC television poll released last week.

AFP, 27/2/09

Obama administration places new emphasis on Asia...

United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Asia last week as America's top diplomat, the first time in 50 years that a US secretary of state chose Asia, instead of Europe or the Middle East, as their first trip abroad. Asia is rising, and so is its place on the US foreign policy agenda.

Clinton's visit came at a critical juncture as the Barack Obama administration charts a new course for America's foreign policy even as it addresses the domestic economic challenges. Clinton pleaded with her Chinese hosts to continue purchasing US bonds, of which China now holds close to US$700 billion, and suggested that a US able to reverse and recover from its economic downturn would surely benefit China, which depends on the US market as a major export destination.

Clinton's maiden trip to Asia has accomplished a number of goals. It sent out a clear message that a rising Asia is very much at the top of Washington's foreign policy agenda. It reassured America's allies that Washington seeks more consultation on policies affecting their interests. It sought to restore America's image in the Muslim world as a partner, not a domineering crusader.

And finally, it showed a level of pragmatism and continuity in its China policy where mutual interests call for closer cooperation and where conflicts can and should be managed to sustain and promote a viable working bilateral relationship in the coming years.

Asia Times, 27/2/09

...and praises Turkey as 'crucial ally' in middle east

U.S. special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell said Thursday Turkey will play a "key role" in President Barack Obama's efforts to achieve peace in the Middle East.

Mitchell, in Ankara as part of a tour that will also take him to Israel and the West Bank, said Muslim Turkey's ties with Israel and Arab countries was an asset for Obama's promise to make Arab-Israeli peace a foreign policy priority. "Turkey is a crucial ally of the United States and an important force for peace and security in the Middle East," Mitchell told reporters after meeting Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.

NATO member Turkey, Israel's closest ally in the Middle East, has played a major role as a mediator in the past, in particular in bringing Israel and Syria to indirect negotiations.

Erdogan told Mitchell Washington should engage Hamas if progress is to be made on peace in the Middle East, a Turkish government official who was present at the talks told Reuters.

Reuters, 26/2/09